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涨价时代全面来临

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China is taking the rare step of sharply increasing fares for riders on four major bullet train lines, in its broadest move to address rising costs and heavy debts since construction of the system began nearly two decades ago.

近期,四条主要高铁线路票价大幅上涨,以应对成本上升和债务问题,这是二十年来幅度最大的一次,十分罕见。

The peak fares will rise almost 20 percent for first- and second-class tickets at peak times except for the route between Hangzhou and Changsha, where the increases will be smaller. Fares will jump as much as 39 percent for the luxurious V.I.P. business-class seats, which feature lie-flat seats resembling those in business class on intercontinental flights.

除杭州至长沙涨幅较小外,其他线路一等座、二等座高峰时段票价上涨近20%,商务座票价将上涨39%。

The higher prices for train tickets are part of a push to raise prices for public services. Earlier this year, water and natural gas bills started going up in some cities.

此次票价上涨是公共服务价格上涨的一部分。今年早前,一些城市的水费和燃气费开始上涨。

“Everything is going up, except wages,” one complained.

“什么都在涨,除了工资,”一名网友说。

Public services in China are heavily subsidized by local governments. But huge municipal debts mean that these governments have less money on hand to keep prices down.

公共服务得到地方政府的大力补贴,但巨额债务意味着没有钱来压低公共服务价格。

Increasing prices can stem losses at some giant state-owned enterprises that provide these services. And making consumers pay more helps offset the falling prices that are widespread in China’s economy as growth slows.

涨价可以减少提供这些服务的大型国企亏损。随着经济增长放缓,让消费者支付更多费用,有助于抵消普遍的价格下跌。

China has already pushed up electricity charges considerably since 2021 for many factories, although residential customers continue to pay low, subsidized electricity rates.

自2021年以来,多地工厂电费已大幅提升,但居民电费仍得到较大补贴。

The bullet trains are a symbol of the country’s capacity to build infrastructure, often even before there is consumer demand for it. But that infrastructure has been paid for with enormous borrowing, which has reached $870 billion just for China State Railway Group, the state-owned enterprise that runs the rail network.

高铁是该国基建能力的象征,通常在需求不足时就开工建设。但基建需要巨额借款,仅运营铁路网的国铁借款就达到8700亿美元。

But the debt incurred to build that network is not limited to China State Railway Group. Many of its lines are owned by joint ventures with provincial and municipal governments that helped pay for construction and are becoming less able to subsidize transportation.

但债务不仅限于国铁集团。许多线路都是由与省市政府的合资企业所有,这些企业帮助支付建设费用,但现在补贴能力越来越弱。

The rail system explained the fare increases, which will take effect on June 15, with a statement to the official Xinhua news agency, saying that “operating costs such as line maintenance, vehicle purchase, equipment updates, and employment of labor have undergone major changes.”

国铁对将于6月15日生效的票价上涨进行了解释,称“线路维护、车辆购置、设备更新、劳动力等运营成本发生了重大变化”。

The rail system said in its statement to Xinhua that raising the peak fares would make deeper discounts possible for some off-peak tickets and for slower trains that make more stops.

铁路系统在声明中表示,此举将使一些非高峰车票和停靠更多站点的慢速火车获得更大折扣。

The rail system increased second-class fares on the country’s most traveled route, between Beijing and Shanghai, by 8 percent in late 2020 and then another 10 percent a year later.

其实,早在2020年底,最繁忙的京沪线二等座票价就上涨了8%,一年后又涨了10%。

When the system opened, many in the West predicted its cavernous stations might never be filled. Today, lines serving some smaller cities, especially where economic growth has stalled or worse, are infrequently used.

当年高铁开通时,许多西方人预测其巨大的车站可能永远不会被填满。如今,一些小城市高铁上座率很低,特别是在经济停滞下滑的地方。

But hundreds of smaller cities and towns have built large stations, even if they have as few as one train a day. China State Railway invested another $108 billion last year in further expansion, much of it to connect outlying areas. Yet it reported operating profits of only $470 million, leaving it with little money to pay down debt.

但上千个较小的城镇也建造了大型车站,即使每天只有一趟车。国铁去年又投资1080亿美元用于进一步扩建,其中大部分用于边远地区。然而,整个集团去年营业利润仅为4.7亿美元,几乎没有钱还债。

延伸阅读

第一财经报道,除了广州水费涨价外,河南、湖南、安徽等多地近期上调了电价,或更改原本的计价方式。上个月重庆燃气表跑得太快的事情闹得沸沸扬扬,许多民众仔细检查自家燃气开销后发现,去年下半年以来,燃气费都增加了。有燃气业者表示,全国2000多个市、县预计会在今年6月前完成一次调价。

水、电、燃气、铁路等涨价,一方面与相关行业的成本上升有关;另一方面,这些公用属性的产品与服务,向来获得政府财政补贴。经济学者分析,这一轮涨价很大程度上与地方财政紧张有关。经济增长放缓,房地产低迷,导致地方财政吃紧,从中央到地方都过起了紧日子。地方债务已经没有扩大的空间了,一部分对公用产品和服务的补贴在这个节骨眼上会退出,涨价变得逼不得已。

新加坡《联合早报》对此评论道,眼下消费低迷,背后的根本原因是人们对经济前景、收入增长的预期都不乐观。尽管官方极力推动“以旧换新”等刺激消费的措施,但各种不确定性下,民众宁可把钱放在银行里,为“雨天”做准备。若是消费低迷的根本原因没有解决,这波水电燃气价格的上涨,恐怕会让已经觉得手头紧张的老百姓更舍不得花钱,如此循环,CPI上涨可能是昙花一现,对消费回暖弊大于利。


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